Earthquakes can finally be predicted as scientists make major breakthrough

Spanish earthquake researchers claim to have noticed significant changes in the epicentre of a major earthquake in Turkey eight months before disaster struck – in a major clue that scientists could soon start to “predict” earthquakes months in advance.

In February 2023, Turkey and Syria were hit by 7.8 and 7.5 magnitude earthquakes, respectively, resulting in approximately 60,000 casualties and widespread destruction.

The East Anatolian fault lines, known as one of the world’s most dangerous fault systems, were identified as the cause of this disaster. Dr Patricia Martnez Garzón, who specialises in the physics of earthquakes, monitored seismic activity around the epicenter of the Turkish earthquake alongside her colleagues at the German Research Centre for Geosciences.

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About eight months before the significant quake, the researchers reported early warning signs. Published in the journal Nature Communications, their findings suggest that certain large earthquakes may exhibit a preparatory phase.

Although the potential for earthquake prediction could save numerous lives, the authors approach this cautiously, recognising the complexity of these processes and the need for further studies to determine if these signals can be incorporated into warning systems.

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Martínez Garzón told the newspaper ABC Cienca: “Eight months before the Turkey earthquake, two zones near the epicentre within 20 km were very active up to the time of the main earthquake. And that seismicity was anomalous, both in intensity and frequency, compared to what we had recorded for nine years. In addition to having many more earthquakes, the amount of energy released was greater.”

Meanwhile, animals can also provide a good pre-warning system for natural disasters such as earthquakes, sometimes up to hours in advance, according to scientists.

Pets and farm animals could soon be drafted to provide a ready-made early alert system in regions at high risk of natural disasters in a pioneering effort by an international team of animal behavioural experts. By tracking the behaviour of creatures both big and small in areas prone to earthquakes, tsunamis or cyclones, scientists at the Icarus project argue it may be possible to detect warning signs before a disaster occurs.

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