Sunak’s Tories heading for ‘perpetual vortex of agitation’ with Tamworth defeat
Tamworth: Aerial views show rooftops in Staffordshire town
Tamworth holds a special place for the Conservatives in their long history as the world’s oldest and most successful political party.
On December 18, 1834, the local MP Sir Robert Peel – one of Britain’s greatest Prime Ministers – published a document called the Tamworth Manifesto which transformed the Tories into the modern-day Conservative Party.
This Thursday, almost 189 years on, the same Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak’s leadership is staring at the probability of defeat in the town in which it was born.
A loss to the Labour Party in the Staffordshire seat where in 2019 they held two-thirds of the popular vote and a majority of almost 20,000 would signal a collapse in support and possibly unleash years of civil war.
Symbolically, a defeat in this ultra-safe seat with all its historical connotations, coupled with an expected loss in even safer Mid Bedfordshire may be enough for Tory MPs to finally come to terms that their party in its current form is heading rapidly towards a death spiral of its own making.
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Pincher’s legacy
It is not helped that the saga involving the previous MP Christopher Pincher catapulted the Conservatives into the current calamity.
Pincher was forced to resign on June 30 last year after a rather interesting night in the Conservative Party’s other spiritual home, the Carlton Club.
The scandal triggered a series of ministerial resignations (including Sunak as Chancellor) which forced Boris Johnson to resign over question marks on his personal judgement.
Two leadership elections and a failed Truss Premiership later, Sunak was imposed as Prime Minister by what amounts to be a coup and the Conservative Party has been in a state of civil war ever since.
Pincher, who essentially went into hiding after his antics, somehow only quit as an MP on September 7 this year, more than 14 months after setting off the whole debacle.
And this Thursday voters in Tamworth will be asked to replace him.
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Current state of play
The Conservative campaign has been rather low-key, with no visit by the Prime Minister to support the candidate Andrew Cooper.
Tory MPs, mostly from the Midlands, who have been to the Staffordshire seat have said they have largely been asked to deliver leaflets rather than engage with voters.
Most say “it’s not that bad” but there is no real expectation of victory.
One Conservative MP noted: “Our biggest problem will be apathy. Our vote just won’t come out.”
Labour is expecting to only have its second Tamworth MP in history with Sarah Edwards.
One Labour MP who was there over the weekend said: “We’ve got this one in the bag and should have Mid Bedfordshire too if the Lib Dems don’t much it up for us.”
Consequences of defeat
These by-elections fall at the end of a conference season which saw the Tories go backwards in the polls and Labour reestablish a 20-point lead.
While a few letters asking for a leadership vote have gone in from Conservative MPs two horrendous defeats are unlikely to see a serious challenge to Sunak now.
The more realistic consequence is that it will extinguish hope among Tory MPs. Many more will decide to step down at the next election and others will get on with planning who the leader of the Opposition will be.
Skeleton leadership teams are already in place for some candidates and the names of those expected to run are regularly touted.
On the right are Home Secretary Suella Braverman, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and former Home Secretary Dame Priti Patel.
On the left, Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt and Education Secretary Gillian Keegan.
Meanwhile, the bridge or compromise candidates are Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and former party chairman Sir Jake Berry.
What it all means is that the proper battle for the soul of the Conservative Party will take place.
This will be between true conservatives on the right supporting low tax, low immigration, getting out of things like the European Convention of Human Rights and pushing anti-woke policies versus the liberal democrat left of the party who quite like the woke agenda, mostly don’t like Brexit, are happy to continue with high tax and spend and think the right are quasi-fascists.
A perpetual vortex of agitation awaits
Sir Robert Peel’s Tamworth manifesto – as the founding document of the party – still provides important lessons today for his warring successors.
While it dealt with some burning issues of the day which people care little about now like Church of England reform, the document contained two key principles.
The first was that the Conservatives would “reform to survive”. The second warned that unnecessary reform “would lead to a perpetual vortex of agitation.”
What this has meant is that the Parliamentary Conservative Party has mostly resisted seismic change such as extending the voting franchise, creating the NHS, devolution, Lord reform, and even Brexit until these things happened after which they accepted them and got on with things.
It has been a formula for success but it will need to be one they will have to apply to their own party.
Will they change the party structure to give members more of a say and thereby attract more members? What will they end up doing with party policy? Will they adopt the policies of the more radical right?
There are many questions which will go well beyond the personalities of a leadership context.
But the truth is that it is Peel’s warning of being trapped in “a perpetual vortex of agitation” that seems to be the most likely destination of the party at the moment.
There appears to be little or no common ground to unite its factions apart from a desire to remain in power and keep Labour out.
The mutual dislike now among the different Tory groupings is so intense that only some sort of political bloodletting can resolve it.
The Tories are heading for a world of pain.
But they have been here before. Peel himself led the Conservatives to such a disaster when they split over his repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846.
The ousting of Margaret Thatcher in 1990 led to a descent into chaos for the Tories which ended with record defeat in 1997.
Both times the Conservatives were out of office for many years.
Defeat in Tamworth tomorrow could be the herald of another cataclysmic event for the party and it is hard to see how Mr Sunak can turn things around.
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