Starmer dealt massive blow as Plaid Cymru ‘doesn’t bring much to the table’for Labour 2024

John Curtice praises Defence Secretary Ben Wallace

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According to polling from the Election Calculus website, from March 31 Labour is forecast to have 302 seats with 39 percent of the vote leaving it 24 seats short of the 326 seats needed to govern. Speaking to Sir John Curtice Professor of Politics at The University of Strathclyde argued that while Plaid Cymru might be “willing” to support a minority Labour administration, the Welsh nationalists only have 4 Westminster seats and “don’t bring much to the table”

He said: “Plaid might well be willing to support a minority Labour Government but they don’t bring much to the table with only 4 seats, with possibly one less with a boundary review.”

Sir John went on to argue that the Liberal Democrats, who are predicted to have 29 seats with current polling, and the SNP, who are predicted to retain all of their current 56 seats, are more likely to be crucial in potentially supporting a minority Labour Government.

He said: “If you’ve got Labour and the Lib Dems on 320, then Labour may go with Plaid.

“The chance of a minority Labour administration is high but the most likely partner would be the SNP, second the Liberal Democrats and third Plaid.”

Although Plaid currently supports the Welsh Labour Government in Cardiff and has formed coalitions with them in the past, according to Sir John, Adam Price’s party wouldn’t support any arrangement that harms the SNP and prevents an independence referendum in Scotland.

He said: “Labour will face the possibility of a minority administration and will have tough choices of going with the SNP and facing the possibility of an independence referendum or going with the Liberal Democrats and having a referendum on proportional representation.

“The problem for Plaid is they wouldn’t want to get themselves into a position where they enable a Labour/Lib Dem administration if it denied the SNP the possibility of an independence referendum.

“Plaid’s voters tend to be in favour of independence or at least greater devolution.”

According to Sir John, there is no chance that Plaid would support a Conservative administration and there is no other party in the House of Commons who would be willing to keep the Tories in power.

He said: “There is no party in the House of Commons who will support a Tory minority administration.

“Their only friends were the DUP who may well pay for their support for the Conservatives in the Northern Irish elections this year.

“There is no way that Plaid will keep the Tories in. The Lib Dems will want a referendum on PR and the SNP will block everything if they can’t get a independence referendum.”

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If  Labour emerges as the largest party at the next general they will face a dilemma in partnering with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP given its support for the First Past the Post Electoral System and opposition to Scottish Independence, according to Sir John.

He said: “The key thing is if Labour will change its position on PR not to the wishy washy AV referendum vote we had in 2011 but full PR.

“The key thing is the unions and there have been some pro-PR motions in constituency parties.

“Things may well change before 2024. Embracing PR may well change things and take power away from the SNP.”

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